HOW TO ENJOY & PROFIT
WITH NFL MENTION MARKETS

TRADING IS EASY TO LEARN

Kalshi is a regulated prediction market. You buy YES or NO on whether something happens. Each contract pays out $1.00 if correct. At a price of $0.35, you spend $35 for 100 contracts and collect $100 if YES wins. Profit: $65. If NO wins, you're out the $35. Your maximum loss is always what you put in.

If you've bet on sports before, the prices will feel backwards at first. Sportsbooks use American odds (-150, +200). Kalshi uses a straight probability price. They translate directly:

One key difference from sportsbooks: there is no vig. When you buy YES at $0.22, the person on the other side is paying roughly $0.80 for NO. The gap between those prices is the bid/ask spread between traders, not a house take. You are trading directly with other market participants.

Kalshi does charge a small trading fee. The formula: fees = 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the next cent. On 100 PYLON contracts at $0.22: 0.07 × 100 × 0.22 × 0.78 = $1.21. On a $22 position that is about 5.5% of your stake. It is worth factoring in when evaluating thin edges but does not change the basic math.

THE WHOLE GAME: EXPECTED VALUE

A +EV bet is one where your estimated probability is higher than the market price. If Kalshi prices TURF at 35% but you have data showing announcers said “turf” in 65% of games with a quarterback injury story, buying YES at $35 is positive expected value. You are buying $65 worth of probability for $35.

Finding that gap is the whole game. Kalshi prices are set by the crowd using general knowledge. If you have more specific information about how often a term gets said in a particular broadcast situation, you have an edge. Mentionball tracks 3 seasons of actual mention rates across 221 games so you can compare the historical rate against Kalshi's price before placing any bet.

MENTIONS ARE EASY TO LEARN

Each Kalshi market asks: “What will the announcers say during [game]?”It resolves YES if the target word or phrase is spoken by the play-by-play announcer or color commentator from first whistle to final whistle. No sideline reporters. No halftime desk. No crowd noise.

The resolution rules follow two main principles. Adjacent context counts: if the target word appears as part of a phrase, it still resolves. Closed compound words do not count: if the target is “truck,” saying “firetruck” does not resolve it.

Common terms: Turf · Pro Bowl · Overtime · Pylon · Facemask · Next Gen Stat · Tush Push · Safety

Mentionball has catalogued over 11,000 individual mention instances across 221 games. For any term, you can see exactly what was said, who said it, and what quarter of the game it happened in.

YOU ALREADY KNOW SPORTS

NFL fans catch injury news, roster moves, and storylines days before the market prices them in. That information is worth real money on Kalshi. Here is what that looks like in practice.