RESEARCH · JUNE 2026
NFL's Next Gen Stats have expanded fans' understanding of what happens on the field. Broadcast transcripts explore shifting NFL meta narratives and how the media's language reflects these trends.
178 NFL broadcast terms were actively priced on Kalshi in 2025, showing fans that announcers reference the Super Bowl in 92% of games, say 'What a Catch' in 1-in-3 broadcasts but 'One Handed' in only 1-in-5, and mention Safety — the play, the position, and the coverage concept — in virtually every game. Mentionball expands on this, studying 100 tactical terms Kalshi hasn't priced yet — the strategic vocabulary that defines how the game is played — across 320 transcripts from 2023–2025.
The NFL reached a 70/30 zone-to-man split in 2025 — yet announcers still mentioned man coverage in 79% of broadcasts vs. zone in only 47%. The gap is real and intentional: man coverage creates a visible one-on-one matchup that's easy to explain to a viewer. Zone runs in the background as the structural default, only called out when the offense exploits a soft spot. The solid lines are what announcers said. The dashed lines are what was actually on the field.
% OF NFL BROADCASTS MENTIONING TERM · 2023 → 2024 → 2025
2023
“Anytime you play man coverage against Patrick Mahomes, he knows it. He knows which side you don't have help on. He goes that way, he breaks your back, he breaks your spirit, and he wins world championships.”
Cris Collinsworth · KC @ NYJ · NBC SNF · Oct 2023
2025
“Matt Eberflus, the new defensive coordinator for the Dallas Cowboys, he loves a variety of zone coverages. They almost play exclusively zone.”
Greg Olsen · NYG @ DAL · FOX · Sept 2025
Pre-snap motion — shifting receivers before the snap to force coverage tells — climbed from 39% of broadcasts in 2023 to 51% in 2025, tracking an on-field rate that hit 62% of all plays by 2025. NFL offenses have used motion on a higher share of plays every single year since 2014. Announcers discuss it because it creates visible drama: will a defender follow? As offenses mastered motion, the plays that once defined offensive innovation — RPO and Read Option — faded. Built for simpler pre-snap defenses, they lost their edge as coverages became harder to decode.
RISING · PRE-SNAP MOTION
FALLING · RPO · READ OPTION
“You'll see a lot of 2-backs, you'll see a lot of motion, a lot of pre-snap movement. And of course, Brock Purdy, great command of it all.”
Al Michaels · NYG @ SF · Amazon TNF · Sept 2023
Heavy personnel went from 6% of broadcasts in 2023 to 30% in 2025. This isn't just a Tush Push story — it's the other side of the zone coverage shift. As defenses deployed more zone and added coverage-capable linebackers, base defensive personnel (three linebackers on the field) climbed from 23.5% of plays to 29.6%. Heavier offensive personnel forced that adjustment. The NFC North led the way: Detroit used base personnel on 82% of first-down plays in 2025. The action-reaction cycle visible in our broadcast data — Jumbo offense rising, Dime defense rising, zone coverage rising — is one connected story about the NFL rediscovering the value of mass.
JUMBO FORMATION · % OF BROADCASTS WITH AT LEAST ONE MENTION · 2023 → 2024 → 2025
“Yeah, go jumbo here. David Montgomery the back. Give it to Montgomery — this is the formation you want to see.”
Greg Olsen · GB @ DET · FOX · Nov 2023
The constants calibrate the rest. Blitz, Play Action, Red Zone, Third Down — flat across all three seasons. Every shift above is a real departure from a stable baseline.
% OF BROADCASTS MENTIONING TERM · Y-AXIS STARTS AT 80% TO SHOW VARIANCE WITHIN THE STABLE BAND
Kalshi's 178 terms measure broadcast frequency for events and narratives. These 100 terms measure something different — the strategic vocabulary of how the game is played. None of them are currently offered as markets. All of them appeared in NFL broadcasts, measured across 320 games and 8 tactical categories: Scheme, Formation, Pass Rush, Run Game, Pass Game, Named Plays, Situation, and Narrative.
FASTEST RISING · % OF BROADCASTS MENTIONING TERM
| TERM | CATEGORY | 2023 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jumbo | Formation | 6% | 30% | ↑24pp |
| Zone Coverage | Scheme | 29% | 47% | ↑18pp |
| Bootleg | Named Play | 21% | 35% | ↑14pp |
| Pre-Snap | Situation | 39% | 51% | ↑12pp |
| Stiff Arm | Run Game | 26% | 37% | ↑11pp |
| Quarterback Sneak | Named Play | 24% | 32% | ↑8pp |
| Going For It | Situation | 51% | 58% | ↑7pp |
FASTEST FALLING · % OF BROADCASTS MENTIONING TERM
| TERM | CATEGORY | 2023 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man Coverage | Scheme | 87% | 79% | ↓8pp |
| Kneel Down | Named Play | 21% | 10% | ↓11pp |
| RPO | Named Play | 26% | 17% | ↓9pp |
| No-Huddle | Situation | 33% | 26% | ↓7pp |
| Read Option | Named Play | 11% | 3% | ↓8pp |
The trends in this data aren't independent — they're one story. Zone coverage rises, so offenses use more pre-snap motion to decode it; defenses bluff the motion tells, so quarterbacks scramble more; offenses add Jumbo personnel to counter lighter defenses; defenses respond with base packages and more zone. Broadcast language tracked every move in that arms race, in real time, across every network. For terms already priced in mention markets, the transcript data shows not just what the current rate is — but where it's been heading and why.
320 NFL broadcast transcripts (2023–2025) processed through a word-level AI transcription pipeline with speaker attribution. 100 tactical football terms studied across 8 categories via regex pattern matching against filtered broadcast segments (commercials, halftime, and non-broadcast audio removed). Game mention rate = share of transcribed games in which the term appeared at least once. Crew classification via 506 Archive lookup across FOX, CBS, NBC, ESPN/ABC, and Amazon Prime. 2,047 Kalshi NFL mention market results used for historical yes-rate figures in the intro.